NOT CAN I, BUT SHOULD I: ANALYZING THE PRE-EXISTING CONDITIONS SURROUNDING SUCCESSFUL THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTION INTO INTRASTATE CONFLICTS
Costa, Ruben L.
Desouza, Jonathan A.
Harth, Ryan M.
Everton, Sean F.
MetadataShow full item record
The purpose of this study is to identify the conditions that support successful third-party intervention into foreign intrastate conflicts on behalf of resistance movements—specifically, movements aiming at revolution or regime change. While the United States successfully intervened into and even generated resistance movements during the Cold War, most of its interventions failed to achieve strategic objectives. That trend continues today: most saliently, the U.S. military is still present in Afghanistan after nearly two decades, with no successful conclusion in sight. The ongoing war in Afghanistan is the product of strategic decision-making that focused on achieving a specific outcome without considering the pre-existing conditions necessary to achieve success. In order to deter such an outcome, decision-makers must develop more trenchant decision calculus surrounding third-party intervention. To identify the pre-existing conditions that facilitate success, this thesis uses quantitative analysis of intrastate conflicts to determine the effects of political, military, economic, social, and informational condition types upon rebel victory and loss; government victory; and the level of violence within the conflict. Three case studies serve as a means to apply the empirical results and to draw salient conclusions based upon actual conflicts.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Deem, Ryan; Greeney, Ryan J.; Keller, Gary M.; Wang, Jay Y. (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-09);This project defines specific program manager (PM) responsibilities, PM authorities, and acquisition stakeholder authorities based on Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition policies and Army regulations. It maps PM ...
Stites, Alex. (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1999);In the construction industry, Public Works Agencies provide the backbone for the maintenance and construction of the Nation's infrastructure. These Public Works Departments (PWD), State Highway Departments, and the Federal ...
Kotula, Kevin R.; Richardson, Timothy L. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011);This thesis builds upon existing contemporary theories that attempt to explain the outcomes of asymmetric conflict. Specifically, this thesis uses Ivan Arreguin-Toft's Strategic Interaction Theory as a baseline to identify ...