High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates

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Author
McLay, J.G.
Hendricks, E.A.
Moskaitis, J.
Date
2019-01-15Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the
open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant
applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled
Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, highresolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for
the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative
concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are
contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the
seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity
in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ’
0.5144 m s21
) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend
to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make
landfall at .64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These
findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme
climate may be approximately 190 kt.
Description
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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