High-Resolution Seeded Simulations of Western North Pacific Ocean Tropical Cyclones in Two Future Extreme Climates
MetadataShow full item record
A variant of downscaling is devised to explore the properties of tropical cyclones (TCs) that originate in the open ocean of the western North Pacific Ocean (WestPac) region under extreme climates. This variant applies a seeding strategy in large-scale environments simulated by phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate-model integrations together with embedded integrations of Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC), an operational, highresolution, nonhydrostatic, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Test periods for the present day and late twenty-first century are sampled from two different integrations for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcing scenario. Then seeded simulations for the present-day period are contrasted with similar seeded simulations for the future period. Reinforcing other downscaling studies, the seeding results suggest that the future environments are notably more conducive to high-intensity TC activity in the WestPac. Specifically, the future simulations yield considerably more TCs that exceed 96-kt (1 kt ’ 0.5144 m s21 ) intensity, and these TCs exhibit notably greater average life cycle maximum intensity and tend to spend more time above the 96-kt intensity threshold. Also, the future simulations yield more TCs that make landfall at .64-kt intensity, and the average landfall intensity of these storms is appreciably greater. These findings are supported by statistical bootstrap analysis as well as by a supplemental sensitivity analysis. Accounting for COAMPS-TC intensity forecast bias using a quantile-matching approach, the seeded simulations suggest that the potential maximum western North Pacific TC intensities in the future extreme climate may be approximately 190 kt.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0353.1
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Time dependent behavior of light emitting polymers for potential Individual Identify Friend or Foe (IIFF) applications Schumacher, Johannah G. (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2007-12);Light Emitting Polymers (LEPs) are being developed for lightweight, low cost, infrared emitters for potential Individual IFF applications. The unique requirements for emitter operation (modulated, short term response) ...
Statistics of low-frequency normal-mode amplitudes in an ocean with random sound-speed perturbations : shallow-water environments Colosi, John A.; Duda, Timothy F.; Morozov, Andrey K. (Acoustical Society of America, 2012-02);Second- and fourth-moment mode-amplitude statistics for low-frequency ocean sound propagation through random sound-speed perturbations in a shallow-water environment are investigated using Monte Carlo simulations and a ...
Tropical cyclone and mid-latitude characteristics and physical mechanisms contributing to extratropical transition in the western North Pacific Klein, Peter M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2000-12);This study of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific examines 30 cases during 1 June through 31 October 1994-98 using Navy analyses, plus geostationary satellite visible, ...