Testing the peace support operations model with a scenario representing the instability in Sudan

Abstract

Recent events in Sudan and South Sudan led to the creation of a peace support operations model (PSOM) simulation of the area for peacekeeping planning and analysis. This led to questions about how to best use the PSOM and how the PSOM reacts to certain inputs. Major outputs of the PSOM are population consent for the rulers and the opposition. Designed experiments systematically explored the sensitivity of consent to initial values, showing that initial consent has a strong influence on ending consent, and initial consent values of zero do not allow consent to increase over time. Consent changes for a given course-of-action decrease over time, meaning that a course of action that leads to strong improvement initially will result in less improvement in later periods. The stochastic mode does not affect consent outcomes. An experiment varying courses of action for five factions in the contested Abyei region at the border of Sudan and South Sudan showed that rules of engagement have a significant effect on security and consent values but cluster around a few ending points. Consent values stabilize after about 30 model turns. These findings may be useful for military planners or for those developing training simulations for officers and leaders.