Testing the peace support operations model with a scenario representing the instability in Sudan

Download
Author
Baker, Aaron Y.
Date
2015-03Advisor
Sanchez, Susan M.
Second Reader
Nannini, Christopher J.
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Recent events in Sudan and South Sudan led to the creation of a peace support operations model
(PSOM) simulation of the area for peacekeeping planning and analysis. This led to questions about how to
best use the PSOM and how the PSOM reacts to certain inputs.
Major outputs of the PSOM are population consent for the rulers and the opposition. Designed
experiments systematically explored the sensitivity of consent to initial values, showing that initial consent
has a strong influence on ending consent, and initial consent values of zero do not allow consent to
increase over time. Consent changes for a given course-of-action decrease over time, meaning that a
course of action that leads to strong improvement initially will result in less improvement in later periods.
The stochastic mode does not affect consent outcomes. An experiment varying courses of action for five
factions in the contested Abyei region at the border of Sudan and South Sudan showed that rules of
engagement have a significant effect on security and consent values but cluster around a few ending
points. Consent values stabilize after about 30 model turns. These findings may be useful for military
planners or for those developing training simulations for officers and leaders.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Overview of key technologies for peace operations; remote sensing, mine clearance and less-than-lethal weapons
Fainberg, Anthony; Maruyama, Xavier (1988-06);Following the end of the Cold War in the late 198Os, a series of international peace operations, led by the United Nations, took place in diverse parts of the world, including Somalia, El Salvador, Cambodia, Bosnia, Angola, ... -
Cost of Compliance on Munitions Consolidation from Lualualei to West Loch
Lebel, Christopher; Uy, Gilbert (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-05-09); SYM-AM-18-194With the object of ensuring that all ordnance magazines in Hawaii are in compliance with NOSSA regulations, this project is a systematic cost of compliance analysis to identify the pros and cons of either constructing new ... -
Understanding ethical dilemmas in the military workplace factors that influence the decision to take action
Blevins, Rodney D. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004-12);This study examines ethical dilemmas in the workplace and how organizational members move to resolve these challenges. Existing research was reviewed to gain insight and determine current views of ethical dilemmas experienced ...