A Framework for Assessing Disruptions in a Clinical Supply Chain Using Bayesian Belief Networks
Singham, Dashi I.
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Purpose: Clinical trial study failures cause significant disruptions to supply chain operations, which lead to operational ineffi- ciencies and financial losses. Methods: In this paper, a framework to construct a Bayesian belief network (BBN) by leveraging subject matter expertise and probabilistic elicitation methods to quantify the probability of a disruption to a clinical supply chain is presented. Results: The effect of varying input factors on a disruption probability is studied, and new metrics are developed to evaluate the significance of a disruption. Conclusions: This framework allows practitioners to assess the probability of disruptions to their network, thus enabling targeted strategies to be developed and implemented.
The article of record may be found at https://doi.org/10.1007/s12247-019-09396-2
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