IMPACT OF CHINA’S INDIAN OCEAN STRATEGY: THE CASES OF INDIA AND MYANMAR

Abstract

Chinese policy, both internally and internationally, is overwhelmingly concerned with sustaining economic development, which is significantly dependent upon overseas trade, in order to ensure social stability and government legitimacy. China’s strategy encompasses not only the economic investment of the Belt and Road Initiative but also the political and military aspects. This thesis considers the impact these kinds of Chinese actions may have on India and Myanmar, which also have a strong interest in the security of Indian Ocean trade. David’s theory of omnibalancing was used to assess the aspects of national power utilized by the Chinese Indian Ocean strategy. This thesis finds that the military aspect of Chinese strategy in the Indian Ocean has influenced India to balance against China while not necessarily committing to potential closer ties with the United States. Additionally, the military and political aspects of Chinese strategy in the Indian Ocean have drawn Myanmar closer, while the economic aspects of China’s strategy have made Myanmar more cautious, causing it to hedge between the competing strategies of China and the United States. These findings suggest that the United States should focus on moderate actions toward China within the reassurance-dissuasion spectrum, seeking areas of cooperation that could decrease misunderstandings, and pursuing active denial by strengthening relations and partnerships between the United States and other Asian countries.