Naval Postgraduate School
Dudley Knox Library
NPS Dudley Knox Library
View Item 
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  •   Calhoun Home
  • Theses and Dissertations
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items
  • View Item
  • How to search in Calhoun
  • My Accounts
  • Ask a Librarian
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Browse

All of CalhounCollectionsThis Collection

My Account

LoginRegister

Statistics

Most Popular ItemsStatistics by CountryMost Popular Authors

ESTIMATING VARIABILITY IN THE IMPLEMENTATION COST GROWTH OF MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS AND CLOSURES USING HISTORIC DATA

Thumbnail
Download
Icon19Jun_Martin_Sarah.pdf (1.175Mb)
Download Record
Download to EndNote/RefMan (RIS)
Download to BibTex
Author
Martin, Sarah A.
Date
2019-06
Advisor
Dell, Robert F.
Mislick, Gregory K.
Second Reader
Buttrey, Samuel E.
Metadata
Show full item record
Abstract
The Department of Defense (DoD) periodically conducts a Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) round to improve the stationing of its force structure, eliminate excess infrastructure, and attain cost savings. The most recent BRAC round in 2005 far exceeded its estimated cost to implement; in a 2012 report, the Government Accountability Office reported that the 2005 BRAC implementation cost grew from the original estimate by 67%. The DoD requires an improved cost estimate and understanding of inherent uncertainty. Using data from 58 observations of BRAC 2005 recommendations, this thesis examines trends in cost growth. The thesis does not find any statistically significant differences in cost increases among subsets of data analyzed by type of DoD recommending agency, presence of Commission amendments, BRAC action complexity, or size of estimate. Variation in implementation cost growth is mildly narrower for BRAC actions that were amended by the Commission and for actions that were more complex. The analysis detects a bias in estimating large BRAC actions, which indicates a systematic hesitancy or inability to fully estimate the most expensive BRAC actions. The distribution of BRAC 2005 actions’ cost increases is used to inform an improved, three-point estimate for future BRAC rounds. Under conditions comparable to BRAC 2005, this thesis shows that the true mean of future BRAC actions’ cost increases may be expected to be 93% with a 95% confidence interval of [57%, 129%].
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/62797
Collections
  • 1. Thesis and Dissertation Collection, all items

Related items

Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.

  • Thumbnail

    An accuracy analysis of Army Material System Analysis Activity discrete reliability growth model 

    Thalieb, Rio M. (Monterey, California : Naval Postgraduate School, 1988);
    The accuracy of the discrete reliability growth model developed by Army Material System Analysis Activity (AMSAA) is analysed. The mean, standard deviation, and 95 precent confidence interval of the estimate of reliability ...
  • Thumbnail

    Satellite signatures of rapid cyclogenesis 

    Atangan, Jose F. H. (1988);
    Animation of satellite visual and infrared imagery indicates that rapid cloud growth is a characteristic of explosively deepening cyclones. The working hypothesis in this thesis is that the intense vertical motions ...
  • Thumbnail

    A quantitative analysis of factors affecting weapon system cost growth 

    Pannell, Bobby J. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1994-03);
    This thesis quantitatively analyzes the factors that affect weapon system cost growth after Milestone 2. The data from nine weapon systems was reconstructed by the Army and Navy from Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) ...
NPS Dudley Knox LibraryDUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY
Feedback

411 Dyer Rd. Bldg. 339
Monterey, CA 93943
circdesk@nps.edu
(831) 656-2947
DSN 756-2947

    Federal Depository Library      


Start Your Research

Research Guides
Academic Writing
Ask a Librarian
Copyright at NPS
Graduate Writing Center
How to Cite
Library Liaisons
Research Tools
Thesis Processing Office

Find & Download

Databases List
Articles, Books & More
NPS Theses
NPS Faculty Publications: Calhoun
Journal Titles
Course Reserves

Use the Library

My Accounts
Request Article or Book
Borrow, Renew, Return
Tech Help
Remote Access
Workshops & Tours

For Faculty & Researchers
For International Students
For Alumni

Print, Copy, Scan, Fax
Rooms & Study Spaces
Floor Map
Computers & Software
Adapters, Lockers & More

Collections

NPS Archive: Calhoun
Restricted Resources
Special Collections & Archives
Federal Depository
Homeland Security Digital Library

About

Hours
Library Staff
About Us
Special Exhibits
Policies
Our Affiliates
Visit Us

NPS-Licensed Resources—Terms & Conditions
Copyright Notice

Naval Postgraduate School

Naval Postgraduate School
1 University Circle, Monterey, CA 93943
Driving Directions | Campus Map

This is an official U.S. Navy Website |  Please read our Privacy Policy Notice  |  FOIA |  Section 508 |  No FEAR Act |  Whistleblower Protection |  Copyright and Accessibility |  Contact Webmaster

Export search results

The export option will allow you to export the current search results of the entered query to a file. Different formats are available for download. To export the items, click on the button corresponding with the preferred download format.

A logged-in user can export up to 15000 items. If you're not logged in, you can export no more than 500 items.

To select a subset of the search results, click "Selective Export" button and make a selection of the items you want to export. The amount of items that can be exported at once is similarly restricted as the full export.

After making a selection, click one of the export format buttons. The amount of items that will be exported is indicated in the bubble next to export format.