ANALYSIS OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE STRIKE OPERATIONS USING STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODELING OF A LEFT-OF-LAUNCH NETWORK

Abstract

With the proliferation of hostile theater ballistic missiles (TBMs), the Department of Defense has focused on attack operations as a means of ballistic missile defense (BMD). This thesis develops a stochastic simulation of a network for analyzing and comparing BMD strike operations. Applying knowledge of mobile launch site procedures, we construct a TBM left-of-launch network (LLN) model using discrete-event simulation software. This comprehensive network models system components from the storage phase, transportation phase, and launch phase. The simulation model integrates congestion effects after strikes are executed on the LLN. We conduct simulation experiments representing various strike combinations to quantify and compare system metrics focused on increasing the delay of TBM launches. We demonstrate BMD strike effectiveness by analyzing time-valued metrics such as the mean TBM time in system and mean time to complete launches. Increasing the delay in TBM launches grants more time for strategic decision making and prepositioning of retaliatory forces. We present this notional model and experimentation method as a guide for determining the best locations for BMD strike operations.