ANALYSIS OF BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE STRIKE OPERATIONS USING STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODELING OF A LEFT-OF-LAUNCH NETWORK
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Authors
Vogel, Matthew
Subjects
discrete-event simulation modeling
ballistic missile defense
left-of-launch network
theater ballistic missile
ballistic missile defense
left-of-launch network
theater ballistic missile
Advisors
Kline, Jeffrey E.
Singham, Devaushi I.
Date of Issue
2019-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
With the proliferation of hostile theater ballistic missiles (TBMs), the Department of Defense has focused on attack operations as a means of ballistic missile defense (BMD). This thesis develops a stochastic simulation of a network for analyzing and comparing BMD strike operations. Applying knowledge of mobile launch site procedures, we construct a TBM left-of-launch network (LLN) model using discrete-event simulation software. This comprehensive network models system components from the storage phase, transportation phase, and launch phase. The simulation model integrates congestion effects after strikes are executed on the LLN. We conduct simulation experiments representing various strike combinations to quantify and compare system metrics focused on increasing the delay of TBM launches. We demonstrate BMD strike effectiveness by analyzing time-valued metrics such as the mean TBM time in system and mean time to complete launches. Increasing the delay in TBM launches grants more time for strategic decision making and prepositioning of retaliatory forces. We present this notional model and experimentation method as a guide for determining the best locations for BMD strike operations.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
DTRA
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.