Irrational System Behavior in a System of Systems
Van Bossuyt, Douglas L.
O’Halloran, Bryan M.
Arlitt, Ryan M.
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System of systems (SoS) failures can sometimes be traced to a system within the SoS behaving in unexpected ways. Due to their emergent complexity, these types of failures are notoriously challenging to foresee. This paper presents a method to aid in predicting unknown unknowns in a SoS. Irrationality initiators – failure flows emanating from one system that serve as unexpected initiating events in another system – are introduced into quantitative risk analysis methods such as the Failure Flow Identification and Propagation framework and Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Analysis of models built using this approach yield a probability distribution of failure paths through a system within the SoS that are initiated by unexpected behaviors of other systems within the SoS. The method is demonstrated using an example of an autonomous vehicle network operating in a partially denied environment with hostile forces present. Using the concept of irrationality initiators, it is possible to identify and prioritize vulnerabilities in the system of interest in the SoS.
The article of record as published may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/SYSOSE.2018.8428778Published in: 2018 13th Annual Conference on System of Systems Engineering (SoSE)
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