Upgradable operational availability forecasting tool for the U.S. Navy P-3 replacement aircraft
Margolis, Michael C.
Buss, Arnold H.
Schrady, David A.
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The P-3 Orion maritime aircraft has been the U.S. Navy's primary maritime patrol aircraft since its fleet introduction in 1962. Naval Aviation Systems Command (NAVAIR) has determined that the P-3 fleet has sufficiently aged to warrant a replacement. The replacement aircraft is currently undergoing the conceptual phase of development and it is during this period that NAVAIR is interested in evaluating the trade-off between operational availability and the associated cost to achieve this operational availability. This thesis developed a simulation tool that was used to investigate relationships that affect cost and operational availability of the new (notional) aircraft on a deployment. The simulation tool was exercised for select scenarios in order to gain insights into the value of investing funds in additional aircraft versus the value of investing funds in increased component reliability. The simulation was developed to be very flexible and extensible, enhancing its value for future analyses. Required data inputs into the simulation tool are formatted utilizing a new technology called Extensible Markup Language (XML) which facilitates use of the data in nearly all computer software packages. The model is robust in nature and can be applied to a wide variety of aircraft.
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