MODELING SUBMARINE ANTI-SHIPPING WARFARE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST CHINA SEAS

Abstract

With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant.With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant.With a strong nuclear arsenal, rapidly expanding Navy, and increasing economic influence, China is quickly turning into a peer adversary that matches the United States’ military and economic strength. Strategies must be developed and analyzed that effectively curb Chinese aggression. Jeffrey E. Kline and Wayne P. Hughes, both professors at the Naval Postgraduate School and retired Navy Captains, developed the “War at Sea Strategy,” which relies heavily on U.S. submarines creating a maritime exclusion zone in the South and East China Seas. In Zachary P. Schwartz’s 2013 thesis, “Using Undersea Assets to Establish a Maritime Exclusion Zone in the South and East China Seas,” Schwartz developed the submarine anti-shipping engagement model (SASEM) to analyze the feasibility of the “War at Sea Strategy.” This thesis developed a new model to test the viability of SASEM and build upon its conclusions. The new model uses a different methodology that removes many of SASEM’s underlying assumptions and allows for more complicated modeling behaviors, such as changing submarine search and movement patterns. By comparing our results to SASEM’s, we found that the SASEM methodology was flawed and produced unreliable results. By testing various search patterns, we found that barrier search is superior when the targets move in predictable paths. Additionally, we found the difference between random and grid search to be small but statistically significant.