CHINESE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY INVASION BREAKPOINT ANALYSIS
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Authors
Yao, Kuo-wei
Subjects
breakpoint analysis
data-farming
model
simulation
data-farming
model
simulation
Advisors
Appleget, Jeffrey A.
Date of Issue
2019-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The China threat is increasing over the Taiwan Strait due to the unbalanced military power between Taiwan and China. An effective asymmetric naval force within its economic constraints is necessary for Taiwan to deter or counter a potential invasion. This thesis focuses on exploring the optimal defense strategies and force numbers to provide an effective defense against a large-scale amphibious invasion. Through the use of simulation and data-farming techniques, a total of 6,120 campaigns were simulated followed by a breakpoint analysis to address the number of various maritime platforms and strategies the defense force should employ in order to neutralize the invasion. The results show the importance of preemptive defense tactics and data-sharing capabilities, and indicates that a defense force comprising 4 destroyers, 23 frigates, and 95 small missile craft provides a 70% success rate in countering a potential invasion. Lastly, the recommendations highlight the importance of the asymmetric force configuration in large-scale maritime defense.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.