CHINESE PEOPLE'S LIBERATION ARMY INVASION BREAKPOINT ANALYSIS

Abstract

The China threat is increasing over the Taiwan Strait due to the unbalanced military power between Taiwan and China. An effective asymmetric naval force within its economic constraints is necessary for Taiwan to deter or counter a potential invasion. This thesis focuses on exploring the optimal defense strategies and force numbers to provide an effective defense against a large-scale amphibious invasion. Through the use of simulation and data-farming techniques, a total of 6,120 campaigns were simulated followed by a breakpoint analysis to address the number of various maritime platforms and strategies the defense force should employ in order to neutralize the invasion. The results show the importance of preemptive defense tactics and data-sharing capabilities, and indicates that a defense force comprising 4 destroyers, 23 frigates, and 95 small missile craft provides a 70% success rate in countering a potential invasion. Lastly, the recommendations highlight the importance of the asymmetric force configuration in large-scale maritime defense.