ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECT OF CONDUCT WAIVERS ON U.S. ARMY ENLISTED SOLDIER FIRST-TERM ATTRITION
Tick, Simona L.
MetadataShow full item record
In fiscal year (FY) 2018 the Army failed to meet its recruitment goals for the first time in over a decade. The missed recruiting goal suggests that the Army is facing an increasingly challenging recruiting environment. Compounding the Army's recruitment challenge is a first-term attrition problem. The purpose of our research is to gain insights on recruitment policies, specifically enlistment conduct waivers, and their effect on retention in order to best support the U.S. Army achieving its Department of Defense mandated end-strength. Our null hypothesis is that there is no difference in the first-term attrition rates of soldiers with conduct waivers compared to soldiers without conduct waivers. This study analyzes U.S. Army solder entry data from FY 2009 through FY 2013. Our five preliminary models are logistic regression, support vector machine, classification and regression trees, random forest, and adaptive boosting. We use confusion matrices and the Area Under the Curve metric to determine the model that most accurately predicts attrition. The random forest and logistic regression models are the best predictors. We fail to reject the null hypothesis and recommend the Army consider eliminating conduct waivers or making them easier to obtain in order to increase the pool of eligible candidates. Our analysis finds that Tailored Adaptive Personality Assessment System scores are important predictors of first-term attrition.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Distifeno, Christopher (2008-03-01); NPS-HR-08-008This study evaluates the US Army''s policy on granting moral conduct waivers and the effects of moral conduct waivers on the quality of service. The analysis investigates the wartime levels of recruits who were approved ...
Distifeno, Christopher W. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2008-03);This study evaluates the U.S. Army's policy on granting moral conduct waivers and the effects of moral conduct waivers on the quality of service. The analysis investigates the wartime levels of recruits who were approved ...
The next best alternative to an ideal recruit attrition characteristics of recruits with waivers and low educational credentials in the Army Ayhan, Serhat. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2009-03);The supply of high quality recruits is limited and services are facing a diminishing recruiting market. Under these constraints, it is important to identify which groups of recruits are the next best alternatives to an ...