RECRUITMENT AND PROMOTION SCHEDULE—AN ANALYSIS OF THE ROYAL AUSTRALIAN AIR FORCE AIR INTELLIGENCE ANALYST EMPLOYMENT CATEGORY

Abstract

In 2015, the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) instituted Plan Jericho, a comprehensive plan to transform the RAAF into the world’s first 5th Generation Air Force. As a key contribution to realize Plan Jericho, the Director General Personnel–Air Force is proposing how to structure and manage the workforce. During the initial workforce review, the project team identified a gap in the Air Intelligence Analyst (AIA) workforce. This thesis develops a Markov model to forecast the number of AIA recruits needed to meet the RAAF AIA workforce demand through 2030. This thesis further examines the estimated Time-in-Grade (TIG) for promotion of AIAs based on historical separation behavior. Data was collected from the Australian Defence Force’s Human Resource Data Warehouse for three AIA Streams from 2002 to 2018. The Markov model forecasts the RAAF needs to recruit 173 personnel in Stream A, 404 personnel in Stream B, and 438 personnel in Stream C from fiscal year (FY) 19 through FY30 to meet the total AIA workforce demand. The model also provides managerially relevant measurements of expected TIG for promotion. The model, however, has some limitations due to the limited state-space and small sample size, and consequently, should be reviewed yearly. As one of the few personnel models of its type within the RAAF, it will provide a valuable tool for workforce planning and enable the realization of Plan Jericho.