JAPAN’S DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE SELF-DEFENSE FORCES

Abstract

According to conventional wisdom, a country’s population affects its ability to staff and fund its military. Japan analysts agree, making the case that Japan’s current demographic situation should be constraining manpower and funding in its military—the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). However, Japan has maintained both manning and expenditure levels for the SDF, despite its aging and declining population. Does the conventional wisdom not apply to Japan? If not, why? How has Japan maintained its military manpower and funding despite deteriorating demographic trends? Ultimately, the purpose of this research is to assess the prevailing opinion of Japan based on data gathered from academic and government sources. The first half of this research examines whether population decline has a negative impact on military manpower (i.e., poses a direct constraint), while the second half examines whether population decline has a negative impact on military funding (i.e., poses an indirect constraint). This thesis finds that Japan has successfully maintained both manning and expenditure levels for the SDF by (1) manipulating certain recruitment policies and (2) increasing its deficit spending.