EXAMINING CHINA'S POLAR SILK ROAD

Abstract

China’s January 2018 Arctic White Paper formally introduced the concept of a Polar Silk Road as a piece of the larger Belt and Road Initiative, while announcing China as a near-Arctic state. This thesis analyzes four areas China stated in the white paper as goals in the Arctic—scientific research, shipping routes, resource utilization, and Arctic governance—and attempts to answer the question, Has China’s behavior in the Arctic over the past decade been consistent with the cooperative policy toward these four areas as stated in the white paper? China’s behavior related to the four policy areas is examined with regard to each of the eight Arctic states, which make up the Arctic Council forum. The thesis finds that as China seeks to capitalize on the retreating polar ice of the Far North, its behavior has been mostly consistent with its stated cooperative goals, but Beijing’s actions and the language of the white paper also lay a foundation for a more competitive policy in the future. China regards the Arctic as a global commons and wishes to promote the rights of non-Arctic states, which would potentially challenge the sovereignty of Arctic states. A more aggressive Chinese policy in the Arctic would also have implications for the U.S., which already views China as a strategic competitor in the region. The thesis concludes that while great power conflict in the Arctic is not inevitable, it is also unlikely that China's cooperative Arctic policy will continue indefinitely.