Damage Functions and Estimates of Fratricide and Collateral Damage
Lucas, Thomas W.
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There are multiple damage functions in the literature to estimate the probability that a single weapon detonation destroys a point target. This paper addresses differences in the tails of four of the more popular damage functions. These four cover the asymptotic tail behaviors of all monotonically decreasing damage functions with well-behaved hazard functions. The differences in estimates of probability of kill are quite dramatic for large aim-point offsets. This is particularly important when balancing the number of threats that can be engaged with the chances of fratricide and collateral damage. In general, analysts substituting one damage function for another may badly estimate kill probabilities in offset-aiming, which could result in poor doctrine.
The article of record as published may be found at https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.10057
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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