Information forecasting for hurricane preparation
Regnier, Eva D.
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At the lead times required to complete a sortie, evacuation, or other preparation, the future track of a tropical cyclone is uncertain. The decision whether and when to prepare is based on a forecast and information about the error implicit in the forecast. On average, later forecasts (with shorter lead time) are more accurate than earlier forecasts. Therefore when deciding whether to initiate a costly preparation, there is a trade-off between lead time and forecast accuracy. There can be substantial value in accounting for the anticipation of improving forecasts in making hurricane preparation decisions (Regnier and Harr, 2005). In order make the trade-off between the effectiveness of early preparation and the improved accuracy of updated forecasts, decision makers must have an assessment of the value of waiting and the improvement in the forecast that can be anticipated if they wait.
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Regnier, Eva D. (Informs, 2020);Emergency managers must make high-stakes decisions regarding preparation for tropical storms when there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the storm’s impacts. Forecast quality improves as lead time until the ...
Regnier, Eva; Harr, Patrick A. (2006-10);The decision to prepare for an oncoming hurricane is typically framed as a static cost:loss problem, based on a strike-probability forecast. The value of waiting for updated forecasts is therefore neglected. In this paper, ...
MacKenzie, Cameron; Regnier, Eva (WDSI, 2015-03);We build a computer-based tool to help train U.S. Marine Forces Reserve (MARFORRES) decision makers prepare for a hurricane affecting New Orleans. The hurricane decision simulator shows the user simulated hurricane forecasts, ...