Information forecasting for hurricane preparation

Abstract

At the lead times required to complete a sortie, evacuation, or other preparation, the future track of a tropical cyclone is uncertain. The decision whether and when to prepare is based on a forecast and information about the error implicit in the forecast. On average, later forecasts (with shorter lead time) are more accurate than earlier forecasts. Therefore when deciding whether to initiate a costly preparation, there is a trade-off between lead time and forecast accuracy. There can be substantial value in accounting for the anticipation of improving forecasts in making hurricane preparation decisions (Regnier and Harr, 2005). In order make the trade-off between the effectiveness of early preparation and the improved accuracy of updated forecasts, decision makers must have an assessment of the value of waiting and the improvement in the forecast that can be anticipated if they wait.