RISK AND DECISION MAKING IN MILITARY OPERATIONS
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Author
Bernhardt, Kevin M.
Date
2020-06Advisor
McCormick, Gordon H.
Second Reader
Sepp, Kalev I.
Burks, Robert E.
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Given the requirement for leaders to accept risk to achieve their goals, how do decision-makers evaluate operational uncertainty and calculate the risk factors that affect operational effectiveness and the achievement of the desired outcome for future military operations? This thesis establishes a framework for making rational choices for military operations and from which to analyze, define, and evaluate risk and decision making in military operations. The framework developed for this thesis is the Rational Choice Model for Military Operations. The purpose of the model is to inform decision-makers of the key factors of operational risk and how to evaluate the risk of consequences accepted against the probability of the desired outcome. The model advises the decision-maker on identifying potential alternatives, the associated costs, and their own true preferences, and then being willing to satisfice and select the best option available relative to the original goal. Leaders can implement the model as a tool to emphasize courses of action that represent the greatest expected value and highlights the tendency to default to pre-existing preferences. This research will widen the decision-maker’s perspective for making decisions with uncertain outcomes and increase the reader’s risk literacy.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
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