Operations analysis of Fleet battle experiments using the Battlespace Information War methodology: preliminary report

Abstract

This report outlines an approach for quantitative operations analysis of aspects of Fleet Battle Experiments (FBEs) using the methodology underlying the Battlespace Information War (BAT/IW) analytical tool. The general approach of this analysis methodology is to focus on a specific experimental initiative from one or more FBEs, such as Time Critical Targeting (TCT). BAT/IW models are then tailored to the experimental situation using actual data obtained from one or more experiments and the experiment systems architecture. After the models and actual data are reconciled, further analysis tasks are undertaken, such as predictions of the effects of attack intensity, and/or of C4ISR response time reduction. BAT/IW modeling helps analyze and understand the system-level impact of sensor data quality, including timeliness, as one contributor to total operation/campaign success. BAT/IW modeling also accounts for the latency involved in processing information, including communications delays, decision time, waiting, etc. An example is developed to show how operational data obtained during FBE Foxtrot can be quantitatively analyzed to indicate important sensitivities.--Report documentation page.