DETERRENCE IN THE ARCTIC: IS NATO A SOLUTION FOR A PEACEFUL ARCTIC?

Abstract

Global warming has increased the Arctic's geopolitical significance, especially for Russia, which has taken steps to expand its military and economic influence there. This thesis sought to develop a strategy that the United States and its allies can use to minimize Russian influence in the Arctic. The research considered the Arctic’s economic importance to Russia, security matters associated with the region, and Russia's national pride regarding the Arctic. It also looked at the implications of bringing the Arctic to NATO’s attention and analyzed the capabilities of the United States and its allies to deter Russia and maintain the status quo in the region. This study determined that Russia is using the Arctic to pursue an economic resurrection and is maintaining an ambiguous political environment in which it might use the threat of military incursion to accomplish its foreign policy objectives. Moreover, there is little each Arctic country can do to predict or to deter Russia’s actions in the region. The Western states need to align in a collective response to prevent Russia from taking a leading role in the Arctic. Pulling the Arctic into NATO’s orbit might be a solution, but the implications and risks of doing this need to be considered carefully.