WHY HAVE SOME SOUTHEAST ASIAN RESPONSES TO CHINESE ACTIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN OTHERS?

Abstract

Over the past decade, Southeast Asian countries have struggled to devise effective responses to China’s efforts to assert its claims in the South China Sea. This thesis aims to explain why some of those responses have been more successful than others. Using five case studies from 2012–2020, this thesis examines how the following four factors account for the success or failure of Vietnamese and Malaysian responses: increased external balancing with the U.S., increased internal balancing, increased coercive diplomacy, and stronger diplomatic support from the international community. The thesis finds that successful responses rely on a combination of internal balancing with coercive diplomacy and international support. It finds only weak evidence that countries in Southeast Asia engage in external balancing in response to China’s actions in the region. These conclusions suggest that the United States should increase its diplomatic and military cooperation with Southeast Asian partners in ways that enhance their capacity to deploy maritime forces and generate international support in response to Chinese assertiveness. Future research should examine whether increased military cooperation with middle powers such as India and Australia may contribute to more successful outcomes.