SYSTEMIC ANALYSIS OF ILLEGAL MASS MIGRATION IN THE CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN REGION
Iatrou, Steven J.
Everton, Sean F.
Porkoláb, Imre, Hungarian Defense Forces
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This thesis explores the systemic behavior of illegal mass migration in the Central Mediterranean region and proposes strategic approaches to address the problem. We hypothesize that the illegal migration is a complex systemic problem, where parts of the system are interdependent and behavioral change of any element effects the behavior of the whole. This research applies a series of quantitative and qualitative analyses where each reveals different aspects and properties of the migration system as a whole. The systemic analysis highlights the interconnectedness of different parts and their impact of the system’s output. Also, it reveals the cognitive background as a unique aspect of this region: namely, the decision to migrate is based on biased perception and bounded rationality rather than rational choice. In conclusion, we claim that the system’s output (i.e. level of illegal migration) is characterized by the interrelated behavior of parts of the migration system; therefore, strategic planning requires the notion of the dominant feedback loops, self-organization, time delays, limitations, and non-linear relations. Also, we conclude that a skewed perception based on social influence and cognitive biases influences a large number of people in that region to migrate.
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