MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LOYALTY AND INSIDER THREAT

Abstract

Malicious insiders pose serious threats to public and private organizations by putting the nation's homeland security at risk and causing millions of dollars in annual losses. Organizations have an urgent need to develop mitigating programs to deal with these threats. In this research, we explore the possibility of using an individual's loyalty as a mitigation factor. We employ two methods to determine the nature of the relationship between loyalty and insider threats and explore whether the impacts of their interactions can lead to the use of loyalty as a mitigating factor. First, we model the relationships with four linear regression models. We illustrate our approach running simulations with insider threat data from the Department of Defense Personnel and Security Research Center and loyalty data analytically generated using a weight and score method. Second, we exploit Kermack-McKendrick SIR differential equation models to investigate interactions between the two constructs. We consider the employed population as susceptible, insiders as an infected population, and loyalty as the control element. In the first SIR model, we run a simulation without mitigation and let the system self-regulate. In the second model, we run the simulation with loyalty as mitigation measures. The results show a negative correlation and a dynamic interaction between insider threat and loyalty. Insider threat decreases as a result of the implementation of loyalty as a mitigation measure.