Determining Optimal Evacuation Decision Policies For Disasters
Crews, Jason C.
Craparo, Emily M.
Alderson, David L.
MetadataShow full item record
Decision making in the face of uncertainty is a difficult task, and this is exacerbated when the decision is irreversible, it involves a near-term deadline, and/or the cost of a bad decision is high. Deciding whether to stay or evacuate from an impending natural disaster is difficult for all of these reasons. This thesis explores the evacuation decision as a Markov decision problem. We develop a generic disaster model to explore the tensions and tradeoffs in the decision to evacuate and use a dynamic programming algorithm to determine optimal decision policies for the decision maker. We explore how these policies are affected by evacuation costs as well as disaster uncertainty.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
WHY DO PROGRAMS FAIL? AN ANALYSIS OF DEFENSE PROGRAM MANAGER DECISION-MAKING IN COMPLEX AND CHAOTIC PROGRAM ENVIRONMENTS Neterer, Jonathan M.; Patrone, Michael A. (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-12);This research attempts to understand potential root causes and underlying factors that influence defense acquisition program managers’ decision-making. Using qualitative data gathered through in-person interviews and ...
The probability of accidental nuclear war: a graphical model of the ballistic missile early warning system. Marsh, Barbara Y. Diegel (1985-03);Six false alarms occurred at NORAD in 1978, 1979, and 1980. These false alarms subsequently regenerated interest in launch policies and the increased possibility of accidental nuclear war, which motivated this investigation. ...
Chi, Maxwell M. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 1999-06);This thesis describes an implementafion of DecisionNet which uses updated, more efficient web technology and includes a pricing system. DecisionNet is an organized electronic marketplace of Intemet-accessible decision ...