United States Marine Corps Reserve First Term Attrition Characteristics
Herschelman, Philip R.
Mehay, Stephen L.
Arkes, Jeremy A.
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This thesis examines the effect of attrition on USMCR NPS marines who enlisted with a 6X2 contract in FY 19942005. Three cohorts were established to determine if the events of September 11, 2001 had any impact on attrition rates with this population. The Pre-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 19941995 and was used as a control group. The Overlap-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 19962001, had no expectation of deployment but many did deploy in support of the Global War on Terrorism. The Post-9/11 cohort enlisted in FY 20022005 after 9/11 with full expectation to deploy. The analysis included previous attrition studies, descriptive statistics, and two different probit regression models to determine the effects of various characteristics on attrition. The variables analyzed included deployment variables, demographics, education and aptitude variables, and regional areas. The thesis found a decrease in attrition from the Pre-9/11 cohort to the Post-9/11 cohort. This was most likely caused by an increasing unemployment rate and deployments overseas. Deployments to combat areas decreased the probability of attrition. The other variables remained constant throughout the cohorts with predicted results. Overall, attrition is lower after 9/11 but as the economy improves and deployments decrease, attrition could return to Pre-9/11 levels.
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