Analyzing Navy Officer Inventory Projection Using Data Farming

Abstract

The Navys Strategic Planning and Analysis Directorate (OPNAV N14) uses a complex model to project officer status in the coming years. The Officer Strategic Analysis Model (OSAM) projects officer status using an initial inventory, historical loss rates, and dependent functions for accessions, losses, lateral transfers, and promotions that reflect Navy policy and U.S. law. OSAM is a tool for informing decision makers as they consider potential policy changes, or analyze the impact of policy changes already in place, by generating Navy Officer inventory projections for a specified time horizon. This research explores applications of data farming for potential improvement of OSAM. An analysis of OSAM inventory forecast variations over a large number of scenarios while changing multiple input parameters enables assessment of key inputs. This research explores OSAM through applying the principles of design of experiments, regression modeling, and nonlinear programming. The objectives of this portion of the work include identifying critical parameters, determining a suitable measure of effectiveness, assessing model sensitivities, evaluating performance across a spectrum of loss adjustment factors, and determining appropriate values of key model inputs for future use in forecasting Navy officer inventory.