HOW THE BEAR HUNTS GUERILLAS: THE EVOLUTION OF RUSSIAN COUNTER-IRREGULAR WARFARE FROM 1994 TO PRESENT

Abstract

Since the 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, U.S. policymakers and military professionals have dedicated significant attention to countering Russian offensive irregular warfare and political warfare threats. However, just as Russia has modernized its offensive irregular capabilities, it has also made significant strides in combatting asymmetric threats. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria demonstrated this advancement, as Russian-led Syrian forces successfully battled U.S.-backed groups and the Islamic State. If U.S. Special Forces (U.S. SF) and their allies intend to challenge near-peer adversaries abroad, then it is time to study the threat posed by a modern counter-irregular warfare (CIW) campaign. This study seeks to address the transformation of Russian CIW doctrine and methods from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Chechnya in 1994 up through its current activities in the North Caucasus, the Middle East, and beyond. By identifying key principles and capabilities from across these case studies, this project aims to develop an improved understanding of the threat U.S. SF and their partners would face executing unconventional warfare (UW) against Russia or its proxies. Such an understanding would inform threat-based training scenarios and enhance the Special Forces regiment’s understanding of how Green Berets might execute UW against a peer adversary.