Publication:
SIMULATION ANALYSIS OF USMC HIMARS EMPLOYMENT IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Authors
Crispell, Caleb G.
Subjects
artillery
Marine
western Pacific
HIMARS
rockets
design of experiments
Advisors
Lucas, Thomas W.
Date of Issue
2022-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
As a result of renewed focus on great power competition, the United States Marine Corps is currently undergoing a comprehensive force redesign. In accordance with the Commandant’s Planning Guidance and Force Design 2030, this redesign includes an increase of 14 rocket artillery batteries while divesting 14 cannon artillery batteries. These changes necessitate study into tactics and capabilities for rocket artillery against a peer threat in the Indo-Pacific region. This thesis implements an efficient design of experiments to simulate over 1.6 million Taiwan invasions using a stochastic, agent-based combat model. Varying tactics and capabilities as input, the model returns measures of effectiveness to serve as the response in metamodels, which are then analyzed for critical factors, interactions, and change points. The analysis provides insight into the principal factors affecting lethality and survivability for ground-based rocket fires. The major findings from this study include the need for increasingly distributed artillery formations, highly mobile launchers that can emplace and displace quickly, and the inadequacy of the unitary warheads currently employed by HIMARS units. Solutions robust to adversary actions and simulation variability can inform wargames and future studies as the Marine Corps continues to adapt in preparation for potential peer conflict.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Other Units
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Collections