PREDICTING THE INCIDENCE OF MILITARY AVIATION SAFETY MISHAPS
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Authors
Herrmann, Ryan C.
Subjects
military aviation
aviation safety
ARIMA
seasonal decomposition
regression
predictive model
incidence rate
AFSAS
data analysis
trend analysis
time series data
aviation safety
ARIMA
seasonal decomposition
regression
predictive model
incidence rate
AFSAS
data analysis
trend analysis
time series data
Advisors
Yoshida, Ruriko
Date of Issue
2022-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
U.S. Air Force instruction requires commanders to conduct annual Mishap Prevention Analysis and develop safety plans that reverse adverse trends and guide prevention actions. Current analysis methods often fail to identify emerging trends in a timely manner and lack the ability to forecast the rate and trend of future mishaps based on historical data, resulting in arbitrary mishap rate reduction goals for the coming year. To properly safeguard service members and government property, commanders and safety staffs require timely trend identification and incidence forecasting provided by sound data analytic processes to target and combat safety trends. Using Air Force Safety Automated System (AFSAS) mishap and total flying hour data, we construct Time-Series Seasonal Decomposition and ARIMA predictive models that provide monthly trend, seasonality, and natural occurrence rates of Class A and B aviation mishaps and forecast the by-month mishap incidence rate for the following year. Each model provides valuable safety planning measures of performance. The seasonal model identifies months of peak incidence for safety plan targeting. The fluctuations of the ARIMA model establish the “Band of Normal” that identifies whether trends are exceeding natural rates. We develop a tool designed to be used by safety personnel at echelon to perform this analysis and predictive modeling, enabling them to focus on safety plan development instead of expending precious manhours processing data.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
US Air Force Safety Center
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.