Bayesian Search Study for USW

Abstract

Modern submarines have smaller acoustic signatures that require new search planning approaches in short timeframe environments. In a typical scenario, the search assets are destroyers, maritime patrol aircraft, UUVs, and submarines (two or three of each), and the decision space of a commander comprises command and control, asset allocation, asset employment, and operation planning. Of these, the last three are germane to this project. The novel planning study should take advantage of past observations and intelligence to guide the employment of assets at the tactical level. The study also should account for targets that behave strategically -- for instance, where Red behaves in a certain way so that Blue believes they will continue doing that in the future, but then at some later point Red behaves differently. The starting point of our work will be a spreadsheet already developed by the sponsor.