EFFECTS OF EXTENDED-RANGE FORECASTING IN AUTOMATED SHIP ROUTING
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Authors
Miller, Joshua
Subjects
Tool for Multi-objective Planning and Asset Routing
TMPLAR
Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
ESPC
Optimum Track Ship Routing
OTSR
extended-range forecasting
automated ship routing
TMPLAR
Navy Earth System Prediction Capability
ESPC
Optimum Track Ship Routing
OTSR
extended-range forecasting
automated ship routing
Advisors
Sanchez, Susan M.
Regnier, Eva
Date of Issue
2023-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Development of the Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC) has improved the accuracy of extended-range environmental forecasting. However, the effects of using this capability in ship routing are not known. The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed a tool, the Tool for Multi-objective PLanning and Asset Routing (TMPLAR), to optimize ship routes while considering objectives including time, fuel costs, and environmental conditions. This thesis reports a simulation experiment using recent ESPC forecasts and forecasts from a legacy forecasting system in TMPLAR. ESPC impact on ship routes and their fuel consumption, overall transit times, and exposure to waves is explored. Our findings are inconclusive regarding ESPC performance against the legacy and climatology forecasting systems. However, large-scale simulation has drastically improved TMPLAR robustness and provided useful insight into overall TMPLAR behavior at a significantly reduced cost relative to any real-world experiment.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research (OR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.