Policies for biodefense revisited: the prioritized vaccination process for Smallpox
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Handling bioterror events that involve contagious agents is a major concern in the war against terror, and is a cause for debate among policymakers about the best response policy. At the core of this debate stands the question which of the two post-event policies to adopt: mass vaccination-where maximum vaccination capacity is utilized to uniformly inoculate the entire population, or trace (also called ring or targeted) vaccination-where mass vaccination capabilities are traded off with tracing capabilities to selectively inoculate only contacts (or suspected contacts) of infective individuals. We present a dynamic epidemic-intervention model that expands previous models by capturing some additional key features of the situation and by generalizing some assumptions regarding the probability distributions of inter-temporal parameters. The model comprises a set of difference equations. The model is implemented to analyze alternative response policies. It is shown that a mixture of mass and trace vaccination policies-the prioritized vaccination policy-is more effective than either of the two aforementioned policies.
NPS Report NumberNPS-OR-03-008
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Kress, Moshe (2005-05);Handling bioierror events that involve contagious agents is a major concern in the war against terror, and is a cause for debate among policymakers about the best response policy. At the core of this debate stands the ...
Kress, Moshe (2005);Responding to a possible bioterror attack of Smallpox has become a major concern to governments, local public officials and health authorites. This concern has been reflected in numerous studies that model and evaluate ...
Kress, Moshe (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2004); NPS-OR-05-002Homogeneous mixing, where all instances of contacts between any two members of the population are equally likely, is a common assumption in modeling biodefense policies against smallpox. Such a mixing pattern is rather ...