Models for transmission and control of bioterroristic epidemics
Gaver, Donald Paul
Jacobs, Patricia A.
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A deterministic model for control of a bioterrorist epidemic in a large nonhomogeneous population is presented. Primary considerations in model development are the representation of a large nonhomogeneous population of individuals and the implementation of the model for quick numerical execution. The model represents the effect of mass pre-vaccination and mass vaccination during the epidemic. It is recognized that the vaccination can result in life threatening complications. The model also represents the effect of tracing and quarantining as control options. The model has been implemented in Java for a Web-based educational tool. Numerical examples (pp. 12-15) illustrate possible behavior of populations exposed to such a disease as smallpox. Various disease controls such as vaccination and case tracing are studied.
NPS Report NumberNPS-OR-04-006
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