Risk in military operations
Howe, P. Gardner.
MetadataShow full item record
This thesis explores the nature and dynamics of risks faced by political leaders and military commanders in the conduct of military operations. It develops a systematic approach to analyzing and an effective strategy for minimizing exposure to risks in military operations. This thesis describes a military operation's aggregate risk as the sum of two components: the risk of military failure and the risk of political failure. Each component is shown to be usefully represented as a cost-weighted probability and the significant variables affecting the costs of failure and the probability of failure are examined. Based on this conceptual framework, a mathematical model is formulated that illustrates the fluctuations in an operation's political, military and aggregate risk as a function of the amount of control delegated by the political leader to the military commander. Analysis of this model leads to a useful approach for enhancing the success of military operations: command and control arrangements that reflect the optimal delegation of control minimize the operation's aggregate risk and, therefore, increase the likelihood of operational success. The thesis concludes by testing this strategy of risk minimization in two historical case studies and in a hypothetical application to a commando-type special operation.
RightsThis publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Brumley, Donald W. (Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2005);This study of civil-military relations treats the parallel development of: a.) the professional soldier and the Prussian- German army in the era from 1806 until 1945, as well as; b.) the rise of nationalism in central ...
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2006);April 2006. Welcome to the third edition of Homeland Security Affairs. Our Spring 2006 issue features articles about intelligence and homeland security, the demarcations between homeland defense and security, and ideas ...
Naval Postgraduate School Center for Homeland Defense and Security (CHDS) (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate SchoolCenter for Homeland Defense and Security, 2005);September 2005. Welcome to the second issue of Homeland Security Affairs. The central theme is Hurricane Katrina. We also offer articles about critical infrastructure protection and capabilities based planning. One of ...