Systematic and integrated approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting in the eastern and central North Pacific
White, Sean R.
Elsberry, Russell L.
Carr, Lester E.
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This study is the application of the meteorological framework in the Systematic Approach to tropical cyclone track forecasting of Carr and Elsberry to the eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones. All eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclones from 1990-1993 are examined using 500 mb Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System streamline and isotach analyses, geostationary satellite imagery, and the tropical cyclone best track information. Application of the Systematic Approach to the eastern and central North Pacific requires modifications in the Environment Structure and TC-Environment transitional mechanisms: (1) A Low Synoptic Pattern is defined; and (2) a Weak Westerly Synoptic Region is defined in the Standard Synoptic Pattern. A four year climatology of Synoptic Patterns, Regions, Pattern/Regions, and transitions is developed. The Standard Pattern and Dominant Ridge Region are the most common because of the dominance of the subtropical ridge in eastern and central North Pacific tropical cyclone motion. However, two subregions in the subtropical ridge with different tilts account for track direction variations from south of west to north of west within the Standard Synoptic Pattern. Storm tracks in each Pattern/Region combination reveal a characteristic track motion for each Pattern/Region. Subtropical Ridge Modification is found to be the most important transitional mechanism.
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