The effect of decoys in IED warfare

Abstract

This report examines two forms of decoy that may arise in warfare involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The first is a fake IED, which costs less than a real IED and wastes the time of route-clearing patrols that investigate it. The second is an understaffed surveillance tower, which may provide some deterrence to insurgent activities, as from the outside the tower appears to be fully operational. For each form of decoy, we formulate mathematical models to study the optimal strategies for both the insurgents and the government forces. We use numerical examples to demonstrate our models, and to point out the situations when these decoys may play a significant role in IED warfare.