The Warfighters' Counterspace Threat Analysis (WCTA): a framework for evaluating counterspace threats

Abstract

The authors present an evolutionary approach to evaluating the counterspace threat in support of Department of Defense (DoD) decision-makers. The goal is to present a process that decision-makers can readily utilize to accurately assess the level of the counterspace threat originating within their Area of Responsibility (AOR). It is particularly useful as the state of affairs change within the AOR. The authors examine the necessity to utilize space to achieve information dominance, strengths and weaknesses of present Counterspace Threat Models, DoD's increasing dependence on space assets, DoD's reliance on commercial space systems to meet future requirements, and potential adversaries' awareness of the dependence of U.S. forces on space systems. Conclusions stress that the threat is comprised of two essential elements an opponent's willingness to employ a counterspace tactic (their intent) and the opponent's ability to develop the necessary tools to employ a counterspace tactic (their capability). The authors believe that the "intent" component of the threat changes more rapidly than the present models can easily accommodate. Therefore, a process, such as the one presented in this thesis, will enable DoD decision-makers that experience many of the changes of 'intent' first hand to rapidly and accurately assess the threat as the condition changes within the AOR