Cost benefit analysis of including Bulgaria in a system for common security

Abstract

After the revolutionary changes in 1989 and following dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, Bulgaria remained alone and unsecured on the Balkan Peninsula. On 17 February 1997 the Bulgarian Government approved a decision on the country's full membership in NATO. This decision was reached after carefully considering of the possible strategic choices for Bulgaria's national security. All possible consequences (political, military-strategic, financial-economic, and social and legal) from this decision were taken into account. This thesis presents the real situation on the Balkans: economic conditions within Bulgaria and its neighbors, the countries' military expenditures, their armed forces, and arms transfers. In order to evaluate the costs and benefits for Bulgaria joining NATO and to show the advantages of integration, a model of NATO enlargement on the Balkans is created. The simulation of the model clearly shows that independent of the scenario of Bulgaria's integration in a system for common security on the Balkans, all of the countries included in this integration process benefit from it. These benefits include considerable drops in countries' military expenditures and increases in their national security. The methodology presented in the thesis could be used for further study in which the model would be expanded to incorporate the costs of membership and international advantages