Modeling and 3D visualization for evaluation of anti-terrorism/force protection alternatives Phase II final report
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Modern Modeling and Simulation (M&S) techniques offer flexible, economical capabilities for assessing naval installation security systems, equipment and Concepts of Operations (CONOPS). These tools are useful for assessing risk and vulnerability in a broad range of operational situations and in response to a spectrum of threat scenarios. Of particular interest to both military and homeland-defense analysts is the combined shore-side and water-side protection of naval and harbor facilities. In August of 2005, the NPS MOVES Institute was funded by the Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center (NFESC) to investigate and develop such an analytic tool. This report describes the work accomplished during Phase II of the Modeling and 3D Visualization for Evaluation of Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection Alternatives project in order to achieve that goal. Waterside protection includes surveillance (detection and assessment), delay (e.g., barriers), and warning and response means (e.g., patrol craft). The purpose of the Phase II effort was to develop an analysis tool that supports assessment of the effectiveness of various sensor, barrier, and response systems to enable decision-makers to make good judgments on what to purchase and employ. For example, if there is no physical barrier in a port to protect naval assets then when does a threat need to be detected to permit sufficient time to intercept/neutralize and how many patrol craft and/or weapon stations are needed to provide an acceptable level of protection? Alternatively, if a barrier is employed that effectively stops all small boats for a designated period of time, then when does detection need to occur and how many patrol boats are needed for the same level of protection? With various surveillance system assets (including surface and/or subsurface sensors), how much time is available between detection/reporting and response? The selection of effective combinations of sensors, barriers, and response systems requires a tool that can represent all these various assets and physical factors, providing insights into the most effective combinations that provide an acceptable level of protection at the least cost (in terms of manpower and dollars) and least risk (in terms of lives and infrastructure).--p. i.
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NPS Report NumberNPS-MV-06-002
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