Extending the state-of-the-art for the COMAN/ATCAL methodology
Yildirim, Ugur Ziya
Taylor, James G.
Murphy, William S.
Brown, Ronald L.
MetadataShow full item record
This thesis reviews currently existing attrition methodologies and critically examines the (ATtrition CALibration) ATCAL approach for heterogeneous force mixes. Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients must be calibrated for use in ATCAL. When the aggregated combat results from a Lanchester-type attrition model agree with the results of a high-resolution simulation, for a particular mix of weapons on either side, the equation is said to be calibrated. Combat scenario runs are made in the high-resolution JANUS combat model. A maximum likelihood estimation approach (COMAN), which incorporates target priority and availability information, is used to estimate the Lanchester attrition rates in the ATCAL model. A continuous-time, three-state Markov chain model of target acquisition in JANUS is used to obtain the target availability parameters required in the COMAN approach. Bootstrap confidence intervals are developed for the attrition-rate estimates and the target availability parameters. The ability of the ATCAL methodology to replay JANUS results in an aggregated, heterogeneous-force replay model is investigated. These developments have the potential for allowing high-resolution simulation results to be extrapolated to a wider spectrum of conditions (e.g., force mixes) than currently possible by virtue of the more detailed nature of the aggregated-replay model involved.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Some Interoperability Issues for Computer-Generated Forces: The Theoretical Chasm between Entity-Level and Aggregated-Force Combat Simulations Taylor, James G.; Olwell, David H. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School., 2002-05);This paper presents two important interoperability issues for computer-generated forces. The first is fundamental and concerns the inconsistent representation of interfiring times of direct-fire weapons in ground combat in ...
Lim, Jun Jie (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2018-09);Target tracking and monitoring plays a crucial role in the intelligence collection domain. With the advancement of intelligence collection and data analysis methods, we can sometimes obtain a target’s initial and end ...
Explicit Analytical Expression for a Lanchester Attrition-Rate Coefficient for Bonder and Farrell’s m-Period Target-Engagement Policy Taylor, James G.; Neta, Beny (2001-07-09);The purpose of this working paper is to give an explicit analytical expression for a Lanche s- ter-type attrition-rate coefficient for direct-fire combat in a heterogeneous-target environment with serial acquisition of ...