Measuring surface combatant fleet effectiveness
Crary, Michael A.
Nozick, Linda K.
Brown, Gerald G.
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How is the effectiveness of surface combatant ships in a Major Theater War measured? While Measures of Effectiveness for an individual ship can include its number of missiles, speed, and endurance, it is difficult to find a Measure of Effectiveness credible to experienced warplanners for a fleet of ships. This thesis develops a Fleet Measure of Effectiveness (FMOE) to forecast the success of surface combatants in a Major Theater War (MTW). We define FMOE, discuss the elements that contribute to its calculation, and justify why a distribution for FMOE is preferable to a point estimate. This thesis also shows how to integrate samples from a distribution of inputs and human judgment into an optimization model. Finally, FMOE is implemented through case studies that examine the impact logistics support has on fleet effectiveness and show how FMOE distributions can be used to compare the effectiveness of various surface combatant fleets.
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