Promotion policies and career management - an empirical analysis of below-zone promotion of U.S. Navy Officers

Abstract

This thesis investigates the selection and promotion of officers in the U.S. Navy. This thesis develops multivariate models to estimate the effects of 'below zone' early promotion on the career of officers and attempts to determine whether below-zone selection puts Navy officers on the fast track for later promotion or whether, instead, it increases the probability that their subsequent career will stagnate. Outcome variables include: performance on fitness reports, screen for command; and promotion to the ranks of Commander (O- 5) and Captain (O-6). Using data from the Navy Officer Promotion History Files, the thesis analyzed officers appearing before their respective promotion board between fiscal years 1986 and 1995. The data sets were further categorized into three major URL warfare communities (submarine, surface and aviation). Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and maximum likelihood legit regression models are employed to estimate the probability of being promoted, to screen for command, or having high fitness report scores in comparison to officers selected in zone. The findings do not reveal evidence that officers earlier promoted below zone incur later disadvantages in comparison to their fellow in zone selected officers