Determining the number of officers to graduate from the Naval School and the number of Naval School graduated officers to promote by rank in order to meet actual and future needs of the Mexican Navy
Vargas Davila, Fidencio
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The Mexican Navy is challenged with too few O-1 to O-3 officers and too many O-6 to O-9 officers. This research developed three models to explain the challenge. Through the use of a transition probabilities matrix, model one predicts the number of graduates from the Mexican Naval School based on accessions. Model two is a transition probability matrix that uses model one's output to forecast the distribution of Naval School Graduate Officers (NSGO) by grade over the next ten years. Model three is a non-linear objective function that observes gaps between expected inventory and demand of NSGO over the same period. For minimizing these gaps, this model considers three alternatives. The first alternative changes some transition probabilities of the second matrix while maintaining constant the probabilities of leaving ("out" probabilities) the MN and the probability of graduating from the Naval School (NS). The second alternative also changes some "out" probabilities and maintains constant the last probability. The last alternative also changes the probability of graduating from the NS. This research provides a method to determine the number of graduates from the NS and the numbers of promotions by grade to meet expected demands for NSGO personnel in the future.
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