Germany's energy demand and supply until 2020 : implications for Germany's foreign energy policy

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to provide an overview of Germany's energy supply options until 2020, the political implications and the respective consequences for Germany's foreign energy policy. The oil and gas supply situation for Germany will become more complex in the upcoming decade. Since oil imports from the UK and Syria are expected to cease after 2005, 18% of the current oil supply will have to be substituted within this decade. Russia may not be available to provide the amount necessary. The gas situation is somewhat less urgent, as a supply shift will have to take place only after 2010, when the Norwegian and Dutch gas reserves cease to satisfy the export demand. The only regions that will be able to provide oil and gas on a global level to meet the growing world demand will be the Middle East, Russia and other Caspian Sea neighbors. Germany's welfare is directly dependent on its economical success. As a highly industrialized country, Germany should take a tremendous interest not only in the future development of the international energy market, but also in attempting to influence the development immediately following that of its domestic needs.