Surgical demand forecasting, standardization, and capitated supply contracting at DoD Medical Treatment Facilities

Abstract

This thesis evaluates whether DoD can successfully predict surgical demand based on historical operating room usage and catchment area populations at Medical Treatment Facilities. Using sophisticated software, it applies statistical tools to develop surgical incidence rates and projects future year incidence rates based on projected population changes. This thesis focuses on medical logistics regionalization efforts underway throughout DoD and questions if outsourcing is the further of DoD medical logistics. This thesis further delineates a disposable product, surgical and clinical standardization program that DoD can immediately adopt to generate substantial savings in inventory investment. This thesis develops the idea that prepack surgical supplies can generate substantial savings following standardization. This thesis further develops the standardization structure, committee membership, subcommittee membership, and product review criteria for evaluating potential product standardization candidates. Capitated contracting for these prepack surgical kits along with future organization-wide disposable supplies, should be established along the same regions as the existing Tricare Lead Agents. This thesis recommends additional areas of further research to include outsourcing medical logistics functions within DoD, defining supply-side determinants and analyzing their impact on surgical output at MTFs, and capitated supply contracting