U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe: the current environment and prospects for the future

Abstract

The United States and NATO are on the verge of major new policy debates regarding nuclear weapons in Europe, yet increasingly, U.S. and some NATO European policy makers find it difficult to articulate persuasive rationales for maintaining these weapons in place. The current NATO nuclear posture may not be indefinitely sustainable. Alliance members should therefore pursue a focased effort to build an informed NATO consensus and to educate the public-prior to potentially acrimonious policy debates. In this manner, the Alliance will define the filture of its weapons posture based on its own security requirements, not on reactions to moves made by other actors seeking to capitalize on the reluctance of many allied officials to address nuclear issues publicly. In addressing these issues, the first part of this thesis analyzes the principal threats to which U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe are relevant-Russian nuclear capabilities and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD%as well as perceptions regarding nuclear weapons issues in major West European countries. The second part develops four scenarios and evaluates their political and military implications: (1) the nuclear status quo; (2) a unilateral withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons from Europe; (3) the formulation of a Western European Nuclear Identity (WNI); and, (4) an Air-Delivered Nuclear Forces (ANF regime . Limitation Statement: