Estimating reliability after corrective action: A Bayesian viewpoint
Earnest, Charles Mansfield
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A complex system is considered in its latter stages of development. N mission trials have been observed, each resulting in a success or a failure. Each failure occurs in one of k failure modes. For each failure mode that is observed action is taken to attempt to correct that type of failure. The probabilities of correcting the various failure modes are known. After corrective action is completed attempts to estimate the current reliability, without further sampling, are made. A brief historical summary of this problem to date is given. Justification for assuming a prior distribution on the failure modes is discussed and the posterior distribution of the parameters is developed. An intuitive measure of the current reliability is stated and certain properties of this random variable are developed
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