Modification of the Fjortoft graphical prognosis method
Clark, Stanley Davis, Sr.
Langemo, James Carroll
Duthie, W. D.
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This paper presents a relatively simple method for producing a 24-hour prognostic 500-mb chart by graphical means. It modifies the Fjortoft graphical method by incorporating a technique to include the intensification and weakening of systems. That is, is uses factors which allow intensification of poleward-moving cyclones and weakening of equatorward-moving cyclones and the converse for anticyclones. The theoretical development of the so-called "geostrophic model" used, the research procedure, and a number of illustrative charts are all discussed and a table of chart verification scores is presented to assist in the reader's evaluation of the method. It is concluded that this method does provide a simple prognostic procedure which includes some intensity change for systems. The results showed an average of 24.9 per cent improvement over persistence for the charts analyzed using a height-gradient verification scheme. Appendix I outlines the specific procedure for utilizing the method on a practical basis and is included as such for the convenience of potential users.
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