Modification of the Fjortoft graphical prognosis method
Clark, Stanley Davis, Sr.
Langemo, James Carroll
Duthie, W. D.
MetadataShow full item record
This paper presents a relatively simple method for producing a 24-hour prognostic 500-mb chart by graphical means. It modifies the Fjortoft graphical method by incorporating a technique to include the intensification and weakening of systems. That is, is uses factors which allow intensification of poleward-moving cyclones and weakening of equatorward-moving cyclones and the converse for anticyclones. The theoretical development of the so-called "geostrophic model" used, the research procedure, and a number of illustrative charts are all discussed and a table of chart verification scores is presented to assist in the reader's evaluation of the method. It is concluded that this method does provide a simple prognostic procedure which includes some intensity change for systems. The results showed an average of 24.9 per cent improvement over persistence for the charts analyzed using a height-gradient verification scheme. Appendix I outlines the specific procedure for utilizing the method on a practical basis and is included as such for the convenience of potential users.
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Venezuelan Bolivarian missions in Colombia: what are the real, underlying reasons for their existence? Biller, Achim M.; Cardenas, Jorge Galindo (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2013-06);The Bolivarian government of Venezuela and the government of Cuba use the legitimate status of Bolivarian Missions in Colombia for both legitimate and illegitimate state activities. The overall aim is to undermine the ...
Wu, Vivian Y.; Shen, Yu-Chu; Melnick, Glenn (SciRes., 2013);Objectives: To investigate components of the rapidly increasing trend in hospital spending in the 2000’s and their relationship to market struc- ture. Study Design: Aggregate time series and multivariate analysis are ...
Steady decline of East Asian Monsoon Winds, 1969-2000: Evidence from direct ground measurements of wind speed Xu M.; Chang, C.-P.; Fu, C.; Ye,Qi; Robock. A.; Robinson, D.; Zhang, H. (2006);It is commonly believed that greenhouse-gas-induced global warming can weaken the east Asian winter monsoon but strengthen the summer monsoon, because of stronger warming over high-latitude land as compared to low-latitude ...