Verification of Mazeika's method of thermocline depth prediction for the Northeast Pacific Ocean
Ciboci, John William
Jung, Glenn H.
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Mazeika's method for forecasting mixed-layer (thermocline) depth of the upper ocean layers is discussed along with a newer version of this method developed by James. Using Mazeika's method primarily, a verification for the Northeast Pacific Ocean was completed with data from Ocean Weather Stations PAPA (50N, 145W) and NOVEMBER (30N, 140W) and a point named MIDPOINT (40N, 140W) . The results indicate Mazeika's method is successful at Station PAPA more than seventy-five percent of the time during the heating season followed by a rapid decline as the cooling season begins. The method should be useful in the entire Central Subarctic Domain as described by John P. Tully. The method fails at NOVEMBER and MIDPOINT producing less than thirty percent success in prediction. James' version did not improve the results obtained at Station NOVEMBER. This failure appears to be due to the controlling parameters for processes in the Subtropic or Transitional oceanographic regions (which include NOVEMBER and MIDPOINT); these differ from parameters controlling oceanic processes in the Pacific Subarctic region (Station PAPA) , which resemble those involved in the Atlantic region for which Mazeika's method was developed. Climatology data which can be used to obtain surface and 400-foot level temperature are also tested. The results indicate these data are very useful and accurate in determining the stability index required of Mazeika's method.
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